MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0547 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 AREAS AFFECTED...Southeastern Iowa...Northwestern Illinois...and far Northern Missouri CONCERNING...Severe potential...Watch likely VALID 272217Z - 272315Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe risk increasing. Watch likely to be issued within the next hour. DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has increased along the frontal boundary extending through central Iowa to areas just north of the Wisconsin/Illinois border. Air mass destabilization ahead of WW147 has yielded MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and modest deep layer shear. VAD profiles from DMX depict a ....... more |
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0546 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 AREAS AFFECTED...Eastern KS/Western MO CONCERNING...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely VALID 272131Z - 272230Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 percent SUMMARY...Tornado watch is warranted for eastern Kansas and western Missouri. DISCUSSION...Northeast-southwest oriented corridor of severe convection extends across southeast KS into north-central OK. Supercells are embedded along this zone which is gradually lifting northeast into a modestly buoyant and strongly sheared environment. LLJ is forecast to increase across eastern OK into southwest MO later this ....... more |