![]() | MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2092 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 AREAS AFFECTED...Southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico...far western OK/TX Panhandles CONCERNING...Severe potential...Watch possible VALID 172015Z - 172215Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds will be possible with initial supercells. With time a cluster or two may move into the southern High Plains with an attendant wind threat. A watch is possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Cumulus development has become more prominent from near Colorado Springs southward to the Raton Mesa this afternoon--with recent thunderstorm ....... more |
![]() | MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 AREAS AFFECTED...southern Louisiana CONCERNING...Severe potential...Watch unlikely VALID 171916Z - 172145Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of locally STRONG TO SEVERE downbursts through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing in coverage across portions on southern Louisiana, with occasional echo tops to 40-50 kft. Strong daytime heating amid upper 60s dew points has yielded MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg (MUCAPE >3000 J/kg) across the region. In addition, 18z observed soundings from LCH and SHV depict a ....... more |