MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0629 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 AREAS AFFECTED...West to southwest Texas CONCERNING...Severe potential...Watch likely VALID 041736Z - 042000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along a southward-surging cold front is likely within the next 1-2 hours with additional convection expected later this afternoon across southwest TX. Given a favorable environment for organized severe convection, one or more watches will likely be needed in the coming hours. DISCUSSION...Transient convection, along with a more robust cell near Snyder, TX, is noted along and just ....... more |
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 AREAS AFFECTED...Eastern Oklahoma to central Arkansas and southern Missouri CONCERNING...Severe potential...Watch unlikely VALID 041549Z - 041745Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the late morning and afternoon hours, but an overall limited kinematic environment should modulate the severe threat. However, a few instances of SEVERE HAIL and DAMAGING WINDS appears possible through early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Over the past 60 minutes, a handful of convective towers and developing thunderstorms have ....... more |