MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 AREAS AFFECTED...central/north-central into northeast Texas CONCERNING...Severe potential...Watch possible VALID 182102Z - 182300Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for isolated to widely scattered supercells will increase late this afternoon into the early evening. DISCUSSION...A very unstable airmass has developed across central and northeast Texas with low to mid 70s dewpoints and temperatures in the 80s. MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg and effective shear around 25 to 30 knots will support ORGANIZED STORMS including the potential ....... more |