MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 AREAS AFFECTED...portions of central/southern LA CONCERNING...Severe potential...Watch likely VALID 290622Z - 290715Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat may persist through the overnight hours. DAMAGING GUSTS and a tornado will be the main concern with this activity. A new watch will be needed by 07z. DISCUSSION...A mature MCS over central LA into southeast TX will continue to develop east/southeast overnight. A 06z RAOB from LCH shows a modestly unstable airmass with near 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. A deep saturated layer from the surface to ....... more |