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Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather (1630Z - 1200Z)
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Supercells and bowing structures with large hail and damaging winds are expected this afternoon/evening from eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota. Other locally severe storms capable of damaging winds will affect portions of Virginia and North Carolina. ..Eastern ND/MN/northern WI/Upper MI this afternoon into tonight... A broad upper ridge is prominent across much of the CONUS today, with stronger westerly flow stretching from MT to the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a moist air mass with dewpoints in the mid 60s extends as far north as ND/MN, where strong daytime heating will yield MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear profiles will also be quite strong across this region, with effective shear values around 40 knots. These parameters will result in a conditionally favorable environment for supercells and bowing storm complexes capable of very large hail and damaging winds. The primary forecast uncertainty involves the timing and placement of storms later today. 12z CAM guidance shows considerable diversity, and given the subtle/weak forcing mechanisms, confidence in the 30% hail area is not particularly high. Nevertheless, a few HREF members continue to indicate an active convective day over the SLGT/ENH risk area, so will leave risk areas mostly unchanged.....more.....